Week of Aug 23 – Aug 29, 2026
Mechanical pass-through of new trade tariffs and energy supply constraints creating a second wave of inflationary pressure. Resilient labor demand and above-trend growth providing the Federal Reserve justification to maintain restrictive interest rates.
| Scorecard | 1Y Bull | 1Y Bear | Score | Action | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Emerging | 7.6 | Attractive | 0.0 | ||
| Bitcoin | 6.9 | Attractive | +0.4 | ||
| Silver | 6.8 | Attractive | +0.1 | ||
| International Developed | 6.4 | Neutral | +0.4 | ||
| Gold | 6.3 | Neutral | +0.2 |
August 23, 2026
Two Supply Shocks in One Weekend, and a VIX That Slept Through Both
The US imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods on Saturday after trade talks collapsed, with Ottawa promising dollar-for-dollar retaliation from September 8. Twenty-four hours later, Iran's central bank governor confirmed the country's oil exports have fallen to effectively zero ahead of what Treasury Secretary Bessent has billed as "the toughest sanctions in history." China buys over 80% of Iran's seaborne crude and now has to source elsewhere. Saudi Arabia's crown prince
August 23, 2026
Regime consensus, cash positioning, and regime flip signals frozen to the latest published weekly report date.
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