Week of May 24 – May 30, 2026
A hawkish leadership transition at the Federal Reserve is prioritizing inflation suppression over market support, raising the floor for real yields. Persistent energy supply constraints are keeping input prices elevated, preventing a clean return to target inflation despite tightening financial conditions.
| Scorecard | 1Y Bull | 1Y Bear | Score | Action | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Emerging | 7.0 | Buy | +0.5 | ||
| International Developed | 6.5 | Buy | +0.6 | ||
| Bitcoin | 6.5 | Buy | +0.4 | ||
| Gold | 5.7 | Hold | +0.2 | ||
| Silver | 5.7 | Hold | 0.0 |
May 24, 2026
Hormuz Optimism Is Doing the Fed's Job — Until It Isn't
The dominant trade of the week was not equities at new highs. It was the bond market quietly calling the equity rally's bluff. Three senior Iranian officials told the New York Times on May 24 that Tehran had agreed to a memorandum of understanding to halt fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump called it "largely negotiated." Brent dropped roughly 6% on the week per Trading Economics, and the Dow punched through 50,000 for the first time. But on the same day Kevin Warsh was sworn in as
May 24, 2026
Regime consensus, cash positioning, and regime flip signals frozen to the latest published weekly report date.
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